A assortment of storms in the Gulf of Mexico could produce into Tropical Storm Colin with forecasts displaying it moving toward the Tampa Bay area early next week.
A series of heavy thunderstorms is anticipated to drench much of the Bay area on Saturday and Sunday before the tropical system is predicted to arrive Monday night or Tuesday morning. The storms bring with them the threat of flooding in low-lying places and the possibility of gusty winds and tornadoes.
“People need to not check out over the weekend,” stated 10Weather WTSP meteorologist Jim Van Fleet. “In the next two days, stay on top of the forecasts.”
The storms were emerging together Friday afternoon in an area southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
As Bonnie tracks away from the United States, a new tropical system is likely to develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether it strengthens into Tropical Storm Colin, it will threaten Florida with flooding downpours and building seas early next week.
A growing area of showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea will travel northwestward and end up near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this weekend. From near the Yucatan Peninsula to the eastern Gulf of Mexico, a tropical system may be born early next week.
Steering winds will eventually pick up and guide the feature northeastward.
The National Weather Service in Ruskin documented they had a 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical system in the next five days.
That system could reach the level of a tropical depression by Sunday before moving northeast into the gulf, Van Fleet stated. By Monday, it was expected to be nearing the west coast of Florida, possibly reaching the strength of a tropical storm.
“It’s a very similar path to what (Tropical Storm) Debby took (in 2012),” Van Fleet stated. “I think our biggest concern would be flooding in areas that get too much rain too fast.”
Most forecast models indicate the storm moving through areas near Tampa Bay, he stated. A few, though, show it moving either south toward Fort Myers, or north toward the Florida panhandle.
“The majority of the models have been very, very consistent,” Van Fleet stated. “It’s rare to see the models agree this many days out.”
The washingtonpost.com states:
For at least a week, computer models have consistently shown the development of a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean Sea or eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. This potential cyclone is likely to cross the Florida peninsula early next week, where it may unload very heavy rainfall.
Assuming this system reaches tropical storm intensity and is named, it would be Colin, and would be the earliest third tropical storm on record in the Atlantic by about a week.
Feel free to leave a comment. We would like to know what you think.