The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
- The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
- The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
- The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs.
Unlike the earlier philosophical “black swan problem“, the “black swan theory” refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences. More technically, in the scientific monograph Lectures on Probability and Risk in the Real World: Fat Tails (Volume 1), Taleb mathematically defines the black swan problem as “stemming from the use of degenerate metaprobability”. Enjoy!!!
Fall of the Nazionist Cabal IMMINENT as torture crimes, Blame-shifting, Projection of Guilt is EXPOSED worldwide on an unprecedented scale. Expect a new World System based on justice and humanity for all by the beginning of 2015 as White Dragon Society and Allied forces destabilize the last pathetic attempts by the Illuminati and their stooges to create a major World Conflict through hate-mongering, the drive to create a US military police state, smearing campaigns against North Korea and turn nations like Saudi Arabia & Iran against each other…. Be AWARE and be PREPARED, FEAR is not an option. Be safe everyone…